The new season is upon us. And having spent several years tweaking and re-tweaking a formula that not only predicts the winner of a rugby match - but also the margin by which the victor wins by - I strongly believe I found a comprehensive one. Does it sound too obnoxious to call it infallible? Good, then infallible it is.

Don't waste your time reading all the "predictions" out there that claim they know what's going to happen days before the game is played. The last few days leading up to game day determines everything. Team selection, weather, disruptions in player personnel - these factors have major bearings on the outcomes of a game, especially in regards to margin betting. Predictions should only EVER be made one or two days prior to kick-off.

Everything should be taken into account. Player quality obviously leads the way in importance, but one must look at what areas of a game each respective team will dominate, and what bearing this ascendency will have on the scoreline. A superior forward pack will account for little on a game played under a blazing sun in Brisbane. But played in the sleet on a night in Invercargill - well that's a different story.

Team moral, combination familiarity, coaching staff, a reliable goal-kicker, and especially home ground advantage are all vital cogs in the Formula's wheel. History is of less importance, though it it worth noting that since 2012 - home ground advantage has become increasingly important. In 2012, 59% of games were won at home. This jumped up 10% in 2013, and hit the 70's last year. It's not easy winning on the road.

So with that being said, I'll be using $20 this year to see what the Formula can turn it into - distributing the money between head to head bets, margin victory bets, and multis. Let's preview round one!

Crusaders vs Rebels - Christchurch

Not as simple an equation for the Saders' as it looks. This Rebels team has talent across the board - especially in the backs, while the locks and loosies look excellent. I expect them to be looking down at a bunch of teams on the table come seasons end. The Sader's have a powerful pack as always, but look thin in the way of penetration in the backs, and too small to boot. Blackadder should be kicking himself for not signing a Nonu/SBW/Piatau in the off-season. Expect them to try and pin the Rebels back in their territory and use their powerful forwards, with the help of Fruen and Fonotia, to bully their way to victory under McCaw. The overcast weather shouldn't play a part here.

CRUSADERS BY 12 AND UNDER

Brumbies vs Reds - Canberra

A dry night is expected, and I don't give the Reds a hope in hell. The Brumbies look deadly in the backs, and while their forwards look a little under-cooked without Moore, Pocock is back and they have a solid feel about them. Title contenders? Strong ones. And in this game they won't give an inch. It will be interesting to see how Hunt goes at 10 for the Reds, but this will be a big step up from the pre-season run-outs and the Brumbies possess far too many astute kickers and good rugby minds to lose this one at home. The Reds also look painfully raw outside of Hunt. They'll do well to keep the score-line respectable here, but these traditionally dour Aussie hit ours rarely become lop-sided, and I'm predicting that this game will be no different.

BRUMBIES BY 12 AND UNDER.

Lions vs Hurricanes - Jo'burg

Tricky, tricky. The Lions looked excellent in the national competition, and their loosies will take a back-step to no-one. They also started very strongly last year, and they'll be pumped up at home with a vociferous crowd roaring them on. But I simply see too much quality in this Hurricanes side to back the home boys, and they have a strong bench to call on when the altitude starts to take effect. If their forwards can gain parity, as I expect them to do, then the likes of Woodward, Savea and Jane should be too much of an ask for a Lion's team that should languish in last place come seasons end.

HURRICANES BY 12 AND UNDER

Blues vs Chiefs - North Harbour

The Chiefs, along with the Tah's, are the team to beat this year. They possess some massive names in their squad but in this game Cruden, Gear and Retalick are all out. They still have a slightly better team on paper, but the Blues are at home and this will be Kirwin's third year in charge of the Blues - they are more settled than seasons past, and have good experience in the form of Woodcock, Cowan and Kaino, while Saili and Piatau are dangerous out wide. Territorial kicking and forward power looks fairly equal for mine, and I don't expect weather to influence the score-line here.

BLUES BY 12 AND UNDER

Sharks vs Cheetahs - Durban

These South African smash-a-thons require little in the way of analysis. They are almost always tight affairs, and this Cheetahs side will struggle this year without Strauss at 2. They will likely have the Lions snapping at their heals all season way down the ladder. Expect a bore fest, with the Sharks to grind their way home with a few bruises and Lambie controlling the game from 10.

SHARKS BY 12 AND UNDER

Bulls vs Stormers

See above. Though in this case, we will at least get a look at South Africa's only real contender for the Super title in the Bulls. Strauss is a massive addition to the squad, as is Labuschagne,  and they look very settled, very powerful. They have also unearthed a gem in Pollard at 10 who should offer far more dynamism than the painfully dour Steyn. I'm expecting a comfortable win for the Bulls here  and the Stormers, even with the brilliant Thormuellen, won't be able to hold back this stampede (cringe). They look thin in all areas barring the loose and midfield, and there will be no easy way through the home-teams powerful defence.

BULLS BY 13 AND OVER

Waratahs vs Force

One of the best against one of the worst. And for me, this Tah's team is the strong favorite to go back to back. Their backs would be unstoppable under the sun in Sydney against a hardy but limited Force, but the forecast is for thunder and lightening, the great leveler. It's folly to predict how much the Tah's will win by as the weather could have such a major impact on the game, but with home ground advantage and class right across the board, I'll put the Tah's at 13 and over, and check in with you guys again on Sunday. Armageddon wont save the Force here.

WARATAHS BY 13 AND OVER.