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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super 15 Rugby Round 4 Preview and Fantasy Rugby 2 views
05 March 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Here is the Super Rugby Round 4 complete guide. Who are you picking?
For Super Rugby fans, the competition is getting warmed up with three rounds giving tipsters an opportunity to get a gauge on the form horses for 2015.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. That is right. If you picked over fifty percent of winners, then you did well. Fast forward to Round 3 where there was only one upset with the Bulls beating the Sharks and even that wasn’t entirely unexpected. It left some tipsters licking their wounds after what is usually a good round of picking five from seven winners, actually losing ground on the leaders.
The average winning margin in Super Rugby Round 3 was 11 points while 12 has been the most popular winning margin, happening three times. The overall average winning margin is 11.5 points.
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In 2012, 69 out of 120 regular season games were won by the home team, this increased in 2013 with 77 out of 120 and in the year 2014, 85 out of 120 games were won by the home team (71 percent). It seems to be getting harder to win away, with 51 away wins in 2012, 40 away wins in 2013 and only 33 away wins in 2014.
The average winning margin has been increasing, from 10.89 points in 2012 to 12.85 points in 2014. The most common winning margin in 2014 was 3 points, in 2013 it was 7 points while in 2012 it was 5 and 6 points. Margins of 1, 7 and 8 points are also popular, while in 2014 a margin of 16 points was very popular, which shows why the average winning margin is increasing.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015 is available for only $4 for a limited time only.
Super Rugby Round 4 sees the first triple bye round, so managers of fantasy rugby games need to be careful. The Hurricanes, Crusaders and Rebels who have some popular players in them will sit this week out, meaning that fantasy rugby managers need to sell these players quickly and buy them at the lock of this round as they will be at their lowest prices. You also need to conserve those trades, so plan ahead as you only get limited trades, in www.testrugby.com for example, you get 18 trades in Round 6.
Round 4 is also full of local derby matches with the Blues hosting the Lions the only exception. Domestic battlelines are drawn with some intense rivalries at stake with the Stormers hosting the Sharks, and the Reds hosting the Waratahs in the Australian conference. There could also be some large margins, so depending on how brave you are feeling then you could have a field day with some of the more fancied teams like the Brumbies and Chiefs playing at home against lower ranked teams. If you go relatively high with some of these margins you could end up being the closest in your conference if the margin is a blowout.
We are also naming players to watch for those playing fantasy rugby like TestRugby or join the Super Rugby Tips conference at SuperBru. It is difficult to afford a team if playing salary cap fantasy rugby, so you may have to buy bargains, but there are enough new players in Super Rugby 2015 to give you some options. 2015 seems tough to fill a squad without going over budget. The key is to sell players who have the bye straight away and buy them back early. The Bulls have the bye in Round 5, while in Round 6 you will need to get rid of your Stormers, Blues and Reds.
For Super Rugby Round 4 team lists click here
Chiefs vs Highlanders
The Highlanders start off the round for the second week running, this time away to the Chiefs. While both teams won last week, the Chiefs were far more impressive in dismantling the Crusaders who themselves dismantled the Highlanders the week before. This in theory means that the Chiefs should completely obliterate the Highlanders, but Super Rugby doesn’t necessarily work like that. Despite the Chiefs being one of only three unbeaten teams and finishing higher on the table the the Highlanders in recent seasons, they rarely win by 13 or more points.
Both games between these two teams were close last year, with both teams winning the home games by small margins.
The player matchups are interesting with plenty of interest surrounding the Malakai Fekitoa vs Sonny Bill Williams midfield battle between two of the more powerful players going around.
Aaron Cruden’s return to the Chiefs has given them a calming influence and when you combine that with All Blacks like Liam Messam and Sonny Bill Williams then it could be a long night for the Highlanders. The Southerners will put up a brave fight though, so don’t expect a cricket score. On paper the teams look relatively even with three or four current All Blacks surrounded by some good Super Rugby players, but the Chiefs seem to have the knack of winning more than the Highlanders.
These New Zealand derbies are really interesting, as there are players in the Highlanders who are from provinces in the Chiefs franchise and vice versa. How will Jamie Mackintosh go against his old team? By the way, Brodie Retallick is still injured, while Liam Messam is under an injury cloud, so this could make this game closer. The Highlanders have made seven changes and rotated some players to keep them fresh, including the front row.
Players to watch:
Chiefs: The Chiefs have this great mix of quality fantasy players like Sonny Bill Williams, Aaron Cruden and Liam Messam (dubious since he isn’t confirmed yet), combined with some lesser known, but bargain priced players like Hika Elliott, Matt Symons, Johan Bardoul, James Lowe.
Highlanders – Nasi Manu, Ben Smith, Malakai Fekitoa, Lima Sopoaga and Joe Wheeler are good fantasy players, while Mark Reddish, Shaun Treeby, Waisake Naholo and Elliot Dixon could be worth a punt as other options.
My pick: Chiefs
Brumbies vs Force
These two teams are chalk and cheese with the exciting Brumbies with a star studded backline against the determined, but far from exciting Force in Canberra. The Force were thrashed by the Hurricanes last week stopping in Perth on their way back to New Zealand after two wins in South Africa. This could be the bounce back week for the Force, but we are thinking that the Brumbies should win easily at home after getting a fright against the Rebels last week. It is difficult going into a game as hot favourite sometimes however. The Force are probably one of the least adventurous teams in Super Rugby with a relatively underwhelming backline on paper anyway. The Force is yet to be named, with former Brumby, Zac Holmes likely to play against his old mates.
The Brumbies are still missing David Pocock, but with Stephen Moore and Scott Fardy at the helm, they have a solid forward pack. Where they have the definite edge is the backline with international players like Matt Toomua, Tevita Kuridrani, Christian Lealiifano, Henry Speight and Joe Tomane offering them plenty of X Factor.
Players to watch: Force – (Not named yet) Junior Rasolea, Nathan Charles and the loose forwards.
Brumbies: Stephen Moore, Rory Arnold (bargain), Tevita Kuridrani, Robbie Coleman, Christian Lealiifano and Ita Vaea.
My pick: Brumbies
Blues vs Lions
Both of these teams have struggled in 2015 and sit in the bottom two spots on the table. This is the ideal opportunity to break the duck for the Blues. Both teams lost narrowly last weekend with the Lions losing to the Stormers and the Blues were pipped by the Cheetahs. The problem for the Blues is that they have just returned home after a gutwrenching loss in South Africa. The Lions have also just arrived from South Africa (I hope they took different flights), and both will be heading to Albany on Saturday night. Albany isn’t as sacred for the Blues who had a brilliant home record at Eden Park in 2014, but a terrible record at Albany and on the road.
There is one major talking point in this game with Blues hooker Keven Mealamu starting in his record 163rd Super Rugby game becoming the most capped Super Rugby player. Congratulations Kev!
The Blues should still be too strong and retain their impressive home record against the Lions who have a terrible record in New Zealand.
The Blues have an experienced star studded forward pack and an exciting young backline who have been slightly unlucky not to have won so far in 2015.
Players to watch: Blues : Lolagi Visinia (bargain), Keven Mealamu, Jerome Kaino, Charles Piutau and Ihaia West.
Lions: Franco Mostert (bargain), Warren Whiteley, Warwick Tecklenberg.
My pick: Blues
Reds vs Waratahs
The Reds started the season poorly, but have shown enough in the last two rounds to suggest that they will be tricky for the Waratahs in this local derby. There is plenty of rivalry between Queensland and NSW, so there will be no love lost in this match. The Waratahs are coming off the bye, so it will be interesting to see how quickly they get out of the starters blocks after a relatively modest early season so far with one win and a loss.
The biggest changes are James Horwill who comes into the Reds side, while Adam Ashley-Cooper is out for the Waratahs. Wycliff Palu is back for the Waratahs to add some muscle.
This game should be tight with such an intense rivalry. Our pick is the Waratahs to sneak an away victory, but only just.
Players to watch:
Waratahs: Michael Hooper, Will Skelton, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and of course Israel Folau.
Reds: James O’Connor, Lachlan Turner, Saia Faianga, Adam Thomson.
My pick: Waratahs
Cheetahs vs Bulls
The Cheetahs are coming off a one point win over the Blues and they face another blue team when they host the Bulls in Round 4. The Bulls also had a narrow if not slightly controversial win in Round 3 over the Sharks. Both of these teams have beaten the Sharks in 2015.
The Cheetahs have an amazing knack of being in high scoring games after a 35-29 win in Round 1 over the Sharks and a narrow win over the Blues. They average 30 points per game and so far have also conceded nearly as many. Neither of these teams were expected to feature in the Top Six, but at this early stage the Cheetahs are fifth with two wins from two, while the Bulls are eighth. Whichever team wins will be well positioned inside the Top Six at the end of the round.
Whenever the Cheetahs play, there are great opportunities for fantasy rugby points. The man with the great name Boom Prinsloo starts and good be great fantasy rugby value along with Joe Pietersen, Jean Cook, Cornal Hendricks and Willie Le Roux.
The Bulls are yet to be named when writing this, but could score some big fantasy points against the Cheetahs leaky defence. Watch for Adriaan Strauss to get a big reception against his old team, but he should be a good fantasy option along with Victor Matfield, Pierre Spies, Handre Pollard, Deon Stegmann and bargain priced Jesse Kriel.
Both teams will take confidence into this game, and given the recent close results between these teams, then it should be no exception. We are going for the Bulls, but only just.
Players to watch:
Cheetahs: Joe Pietersen, Willie Le Roux, Cornal Hendricks and bargains in Jean Cook, Torsten van Jaarsveld and Carl Wegner.
Bulls: (not named yet) Handre Pollard, Pierre Spies, Deon Stegmann, Victor Matfield.
Stormers vs Sharks
These two teams had contrasting fortunes in Super Rugby Round 3, with the Stormers narrowly avoided defeat, while the Sharks couldn’t do the same in their local derby. The Sharks have been disappointing in 2015, winning only one game and it is hard to know how much to read into a win over the Lions.
There is an intense rivalry between these two teams since they are the coastal teams with very little separating these teams head to head in Cape Town.
Can the home ground get the Stormers home? It is a tough one to pick with the Stormers having the form, but Sharks have a reputation for being the best South African team.
Both of these teams have some powerful forward packs and so it will be an interesting clash up front. Patrick Lambie has been playing well for the Sharks, despite them losing two games.
The Sharks still sit sixth thanks to their win and bonus points, while the Stormers are in third spot. It is interesting seeing so many South African teams in the top half of teams, but with these derby matches, some teams will drop down the ladder.
Players to watch: neither team has been named yet.
Stormers: Dillyn Leyds (bargain), Damian de Allende, Duane Vermeulen.
Sharks: Marcell Coetzee, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Patrick Lambie Bismarck du Plessis.
My pick: Stormers
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 4 matches?
Join the Super Rugby Tips tipping competition!
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/03/super-15-rugby-round-4-preview-and.html
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