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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super Rugby Elimination Finals Who Are You Picking 5 views
20 July 2012 by The Swede Eaters
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Scotty Donaldson previews the Super Rugby 2012 Elimination Finals. Who are you picking to win? Which players will play well?
Super Rugby 2012 gets serious with sudden death elimination finals play-off matches taking place on Saturday. The Crusaders who finished in fourth spot despite finishing with the third highest amount of points host the Bulls and in many ways are probably hoping for a cold frosty night in Christchurch. These two teams are experienced at playing in Super Rugby play-off matches. The Crusaders will be hoping the Sharks win in Brisbane against the Reds since (if the Crusaders themselves win) that will keep the Crusaders hopes of playing at home again alive. For players of www.testrugby.com you have limited trades and so you need to try to pick players from teams you think will win this weekend. For SuperBru competitors you need to try and choose an upset or two. Remember, I think it is double points in some competitions.
The Crusaders and Bulls clashed in Round 7 where the Bulls won at home 32-30. The home advantage will be a huge one this weekend for the Crusaders, especially Christchurch's cold weather at night in the middle of winter. There will be two great first five eighths on display, with different styles. The Crusaders will be relying on Dan Carter to ignite their backline, while Morne Steyn's kicking game could keep the Bulls in the game. The home team has the strongest forward pack in New Zealand, but will be missing Number Eight Kieran Read. There are more dangerous backlines in the competition, but the Crusaders have enough danger in Israel Dagg, Zac Guildford and Robbie Fruean to keep the Bulls under pressure. I think Francois Hougaard is probably the player to watch in the Bulls team.
I think the Crusaders will win by 7 in a match which could turn into a goal kicking duel.
Players to watch: Pierre Spies, Corey Flynn, Sam Whitelock, Robbie Fruean, Israel Dagg, Richie McCaw.
Bargains: Francois Hougaard, Jacques Potgieter, Juandre Kruger, Luke Romano.
My pick: Crusaders by 7.
Crusaders vs Bulls
Crusaders : 1. Wyatt Crockett ,2. Corey Flynn , 3. Owen Franks , 4. Luke Romano , 5. Samuel Whitelock , 6. George Whitelock , 7. Matt Todd , 8. Richie McCaw (c) , 9. Andy Ellis , 10. Dan Carter (vc) , 11. Zac Guildford ,12. Ryan Crotty , 13. Robbie Fruean , 14. Adam Whitelock , 15. Israel Dagg
Reserves16. Quentin MacDonald17. Ben Franks18. Tom Donnelly 19. Luke Whitelock 20. Willi Heinz 21. Tom Taylor 22. Sean Maitland
Bulls Zane Kirchner, Akona Ndungane, JJ Engelbrecht, Wynand Olivier, Bjorn Basson, Morne Steyn, Francois Hougaard, Pierre Spies (captain), Dewald Potgieter, Jacques Potgieter Juandre Kruger, Flip van der Merwe, Werner Kruger, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Dean Greyling. Replacements: Willie Wepener, Frik Kirsten, Wilhelm Steenkamp, Deon Stegmann, Jano Vermaak, Louis Fouche, Francois Venter.
Reds vs Sharks
This game looks to be the more likely for an upset. Both of these teams have finished strongly during the Super Rugby 2012 competition. The Sharks thumped the higher placed Bulls recently and in some regards are actually the form South African team. Both teams will be missing regular stars with the Sharks not only missing the injured Patrick Lambie, but Francois Steyn isn't allowed to play. It isn't bad when you can call on a French rugby legend in Freddie Michalak to start at Number 10. The Sharks also have some talent in the backs even without their missing stars, with JP Pietersen and Lwazi Mvovo in great form.
The same goes in the forwards where this hulking forward pack led by the Du Plessis' and the Beast can bring a star Springbok into their second row in Willem Alberts. Alberts replaces Pieter Steph-Du Toit
The Reds will be missing the injured James Horwill and will have Quade Cooper out suspended. This leaves massive shoes for Ben Lucas to fill, although this team hasn't been named yet. The Reds will probably struggle in the tight exchanges, but with the best halfback going around in Will Genia pulling the strings, the Reds will be difficult enough to beat at home.
I think the contrasting styles of the two teams is fascinating. The Reds will have to play the game at pace, while the Sharks will play a more traditional style using their massive forwards. That frontrow is unmatched in the world.
The Reds are the bookies favourite, but I have to make up some placings and will go with the Sharks to win by 2 points.
I think the Reds will miss James Horwill and Quade Cooper too much.
I think there won't be heaps of tries scored given the magnitude of the occasion.
Players to watch - Bismarck Du Plessis, Ryan Kankowski, Keegan Daniel, JP Pietersen, Freddie Michalak, Scott Higginbotham, Digby Ioane.
Bargains - Marcell Coetzee, Adam Wallace-Harrison, Liam Gill.
My pick - Sharks by 2.
Sharks 1. Tendai Mtawarira , 2. Bismarck du Plessis , 3. Jannie du Plessis , 4. Willem Alberts , 5. Anton Bresler , 6. Keegan Daniel (Captain) , 7. Marcell Coetzee , 8. Ryan Kankowski , 9. Charl McLeod , 10. Frederic Michalak , 11. Lwazi Mvovo , 12. Tim Whitehead , 13. Paul Jordaan , 14. JP Pietersen , 15. Louis Ludik
Replacements , 16. Craig Burden , 17. Wiehahn Herbst , 18. Steven Sykes , 19. Jacques Botes , 20. Cobus Reinach , 21. Meyer Bosman , 22. Odwa Ndungane.
For Super Rugby 2012 results analysis go to a previous post which looks at the most common winning margins. With no bonus points on the offering, I am expecting there to be less tries and more goalkicking.
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2012/07/super-15-rugby-results-analysis-to-help.html
For updated Super Rugby 2012 Elimination final team lists go to
http://www.superrugbytips.com/p/super-rugby-teams-round-one.html
Who are you picking for Super Rugby Elimination finals? Which players are you most excited about seeing?
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2012/07/super-15-rugby-elimination-finals-2012.html
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