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Super 15 Rugby Round 11 Preview and Picks 4 views 0 Comments
04 May 2012 by The Swede Eaters
 

Scotty Donaldson gives you his picks and previews Super Rugby Round 11. Do you agree with these picks?

Super 15 Rugby Round 11 is almost here and while there are some great players missing from action this week including the Stormers, Johan Goosen, Brodie Retallick, James Haskell and Jarrod Saffy, there are also new opportunities for managers to purchase any Bulls, Sharks and Rebels players while they are still affordable like Marcell Coetzee, Bismarck Du Plessis and Patrick Lambie.

There are some predictable matches this weekend with the Crusaders, Chiefs and Bulls likely victors. The toughest matches to pick this week are the Brumbies vs Waratahs and the Sharks vs Highlanders.

I have analysed Super Rugby results over the first ten rounds and the average winning margins are increasing, so don't be afraid to pick the odd blowout this weekend. Don't be afraid to pick some winning teams like the Chiefs and Crusaders 13+ to add value to your multi or standard bets this round. It does make it difficult in the SuperBru tipping competition where some matches could be major blowouts and picking margins could be tough. I am thinking the Bulls vs Rebels, Chiefs vs Lions and even the Crusaders vs Reds could have some really unpredictable margins. It is the last week to join our group on SuperBru. For details see the note on the right hand column. First place gets $50US. There are 45 punters at the moment and I am sitting third.

http://www.superrugbytips.com/2012/04/super-rugby-statistical-analysis-first.html

There is a gap between those in the top six positions on the ladder and the rest, this makes some of the games this weekend crucial with the Sharks vs Highlanders, Crusaders vs Reds and Brumbies vs Waratahs being of major importance.

For updated Super Rugby Round 11 team lists below

http://www.superrugbytips.com/p/super-rugby-teams-round-one.html

Game 1 - Hurricanes vs Blues

The Blues were woeful against the Reds, but with each match I keep thinking that they can't get any worse and they usually do. This is a bit of a grudge match as Piri Weepu and Ma'a Nonu left the Hurricanes and took the poisoned chalice to the Blues. Michael Hobbs starts at first five eighth on his old home track, while Keven Mealamu returns to hopefully help the Blues lineout, scrum and leadership. It is hard to know if Weepu or Hobbs will goalkick. The Blues can't get much worse than last week, while if the Hurricanes are to have any chance whatsoever in this competition then they must win here. Beauden Barrett, Victor Vito, Julian Savea and Andre Taylor will be looking to test out the Blues defence which was frail last week. The problem with the Blues is that they do have some awesome players in their squad so you know they can't be horrible forever. Hence why I am picking the Hurricanes to win narrowly. The Hurricanes will have to contain the impressive Charlie Faumuina who is having a great season in a losing team.

Players to buy - Victor Vito, Ma'a Nonu.

Bargains - Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, Andre Taylor.

My pick - Hurricanes by 3.

Game 2 - Rebels vs Bulls

This is the first game out of South Africa for the Bulls who have been one of the top sides in the competition so far. When the Rebels decide to pull finger they can be tough to beat, but without Danny Cipriani, James O'Connor and Jarrod Saffey and with a fragile pack, it will be a tough night at the office for the hosts. The Bulls should win this one easily, but it is difficult to know if the style they will play will be conducive to their players scoring points. I am picking a comfortable win to the Bulls. The makeshift Rebels will have Kurtley Beale at first five eighth and Stirling Mortlock will start from the bench. It could be a long night for the hosts. The Bulls are coming off the bye so there could be some bargains.

Players to buy - Morne Steyn, Pierre Spies, Kurtley Beale.

Bargains - Juandre Kruger, Hugh Pyle.

My pick - Bulls by 14.

Game 3 - Chiefs vs Lions

Could things get any tougher for the hapless Lions as they face the top of the table Chiefs in New Zealand? Going on the road used to be something most teams dreaded, but this could be just what the Lions need. At least on the road they avoid the pressure from the local expectations. The Chiefs have made a five changes in order to keep players fresh with form players like Sona Taumalolo and Brodie Retallick not starting. The Chiefs have developed some depth this season and should still win comfortably although it can actually be difficult to slip into bad habits if you are such a hot favourite as the Chiefs are and take the foot off the throat. These teams have had some high scoring matches in the past.

Players to buy - Aaron Cruden, Sonny Bill Williams, Hika Elliott, Chiefs outside backs.

Bargains - Sam Cane, Callie Visagie, Jaco Taute, Elton Jantjies.

My pick - Chiefs by 25.

Game 4 - Brumbies vs Waratahs

This local grudge match has the hallmarks of a classic. This game will be close and with the Brumbies holding the top spot in the Australian conference (and therefore 3rd place), then this match will be important. Ben Mowen is back to captain the Brumbies and his partnership with Michael Hooper at the breakdown could be crucial. I am thinking that the Brumbies have improved under coach Jake White and should win a tight one. There are plenty of bargain priced players in this game.

Players to buy - Christian Lealiifano, Stephen Moore, Tatafu Polota-Nau.

Bargains - Michael Hooper, Ben Mowen, Joseph Tomane, Sitaleki Timani, Peter Betham, Tom Kingston, Brendan McKibbin.

My pick - Brumbies by 3.

Game 5 - Sharks vs Highlanders

Can my boys the Highlanders repeat their winning form from last week against the Sharks this week? I think the Sharks will be a tough challenge and with the Sharks coming off the bye, their players are as cheap as chips. John Plumtree has named a strong side to play against his old coaching nemesis Jamie Joseph. This game will be close, but I think the Sharks at home look too good. The Highlanders are yet to be named but will be without James Haskell. Both teams have international players and if the Highlanders want to hold onto their place in the top six then they will have to beat teams who are circuling just underneath them outside the top six. The battle between Bismarck du Plessis and Andrew Hore will be worth the price of admission alone. The Highlanders are yet to be named.

Players to buy - Bismarck du Plessis, Adam Thomson, Patrick Lambie, Hosea Gear, Keegan Daniel, Ben Smith.

Bargains - Marcell Coetzee, Shaun Treeby.

My pick - Sharks by 3.

Game 5 - Cheetahs vs Force

The exciting Cheetahs team will be kicking themselves after letting the Highlanders get out of jail against them last week. If the Cheetahs can play eighty minutes like they did against the Highlanders then the Force could be letting in a cricket score. The home team will be without star first five Johan Goosen, but should still be strong enough assuming Sias Ebersohn can kick his goals this week. The margin could easily blowout with the Cheetahs, but I am picking the Force to at least keep the margin relatively respectful. The Force side hasn't been named, but should have a competitive forward pack with David Pocock, Nathan Sharpe and Nathan Charles likely to go well.

Players to buy - Adriaan Strauss, Nathan Sharpe, David Pocock.

Bargains - Phillip van der Walt, Willie Le Roux, Nick Cummins, Nathan Charles.

My pick - Cheetahs by 6.

Game 6 - Crusaders vs Reds

The Crusaders play their second day game in a row and this trend will hopefully continue as their game against the Waratahs was great. It is great to see rugby played in pleasant and dry conditions during the day. The Crusaders are hitting their straps and so should be too strong in this match. The Crusaders haven't been named yet, but it will be interesting to see if they keep playing Daniel Carter at second five eighth and when Richie McCaw will be ready to start. I think they should keep with the status quo at the moment. Carter has a way of unleashing the destructive Robbie Fruean, Israel Dagg and Zac Guildford outside him. This match is a replay of the 2012 final and the Reds will be hoping for a repeat of that performance, although this Reds team seems like a shadow of its former self. There will be some world class players on display in this match. Remember, the Crusaders haven't been named yet. The Crusaders despite being the third New Zealand team at the moment look like they will end up easily making playoffs and should be favoured to reach the final.

Players to buy - Kieran Read, Robbie Fruean, Israel Dagg, Corey Flynn, Sam Whitelock, James Horwill, Scott Higganbotham, Digby Ioane.

Bargains - Tom Taylor.

My pick - Crusaders by 15.

Which match are you looking forward to the most during Super Rugby Round 11? Do you agree with these picks? Who are you picking?

http://www.superrugbytips.com/2012/05/super-15-rugby-round-11-preview-and.html


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