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Opinionated Rugby Commentary - by Fans for Fans
Spill what you really think about events in the rugby world.
Super Rugby Round 2 Preview and Fantasy Guide 2 views
19 February 2015 by The Swede Eaters
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Here is a look at Super Rugby Round 2, who are you picking?
For Super Rugby fans, the wait is over. Super Rugby is back, even though the Cricket World Cup is also on in both Australia and New Zealand.
For those in Super Rugby tipping competitions it is important to get off to a good start. The only problem is that the first few rounds are extremely difficult to predict as it is difficult to know which teams are in good form and bad form. You may think one team that lost in round 1 was in bad form, when in actual fact it might have been playing a team in amazing form.
Super 15 Rugby Round 1 2015 left a lot of people red faced with most tipsters picking between two and three winners out of seven games. That is right. If you picked over fifty percent of winners, then you did well.
There were three extreme upsets with the three conference winners from 2014 all losing at home to rank outsiders. At least the Brumbies and Chiefs won and these two teams looked the most convincing of Round 1. Interestingly these teams meet in Round 2.
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The average winning margin has been increasing, from 10.89 points in 2012 to 12.85 points in 2014. The most common winning margin in 2014 was 3 points, in 2013 it was 7 points while in 2012 it was 5 and 6 points. Margins of 1, 7 and 8 points are also popular, while in 2014 a margin of 16 points was very popular, which shows why the average winning margin is increasing.
This is an excerpt from The Ultimate Rugby Tipping Guide 2015
Super Rugby Round 2 will see the return of several international players who were rested from Round 1. This makes it even more confusing because sometimes this can cause more disruptions than anything else, with players like Israel Dagg and Ma’a Nonu having a reputation for taking a while to get into top form. This is tough on Chiefs rookie Damian McKenzie who had a blinding first round, but he has been replaced by Aaron Cruden. The Reds will welcome the cavalry with plenty of interest in the performances of James O’Connor and Adam Thomson both of whom are former fantasy rugby studs in www.testrugby.com . The challenge for tipsters is knowing if teams can turn around bad performances from Round 1 as there is an impressive list of first round losers who were quite frankly awful, but were Super Rugby finalists in 2014. It is also hard to know if the run of away wins will continue after 71 percent of games were won by home teams in 2014, but only the Brumbies won at home last week. There is plenty of money to be made at the bookies with there usually being one or two upsets per round of Super Rugby, not four or five like last week!
There are plenty of games without a clear favourite in Super Rugby Round 2, this could cause some heartache for tipsters.
We are also naming players to watch for those playing fantasy rugby like TestRugby or join the Super Rugby Tips conference at SuperBru. It is difficult to afford a team if playing salary cap fantasy rugby, so you may have to buy bargains, but there are enough new players in Super Rugby 2015 to give you some options. 2015 seems tough to fill a squad without going over budget.
For Super Rugby Round 2 team lists click here
Chiefs vs Brumbies
The Chiefs grinded out a win over the Blues last week, but they welcome back their core of All Blacks including Aaron Cruden, Liam Messam and Brodie Retallick, while Hosea Gear gets his first start in Chiefs colours. The cavalry has arrived in time for this crucial match which is the match of the round, given these were the best two teams in Round 1. There is little consolation for Damian McKenzie who would have been a compulsory fantasy rugby bargain buy last week, but he is on the bench this week.
Many people are picking the Brumbies to challenge for the title in Super Rugby 2015, although they will have to do it without their inspirational skipper Ben Mowen, but they have welcomed David Pocock into their loose forwards for 2015, but he is likely to miss this crucial match through illness. It will also be interesting to see the impact Stephen Moore can make this season. He ended up doing in his return last week. The Brumbies backline was potent against the depleted Reds with the match-up between Tevita Kuridrani and Sonny Bill Williams likely to be epic.
It is hard to know how bad the Reds were last week and it could be difficult for the Brumbies to back up a 44 point win, but they definitely have the class to beat the Chiefs who are a tough side to beat at home. This game will be close!
Players to watch: Chiefs: Sell Damian McKenzie. Aaron Cruden, Liam Messam and Hosea Gear are usually good points scorers. Bryce Heem, James Lowe, Matt Symon and Number Eight Maama Vaipu are bargains.
For the Brumbies (not named yet), David Pocock is unlikely to play, but there are plenty of other Brumbies worth buying including Stephen Moore. The Brumbies have some good fantasy rugby backs. Players like Matt Toomua, Christian Lealifano, Tevita Kuridrani, Robbie Coleman (listed at centre but scores tries as an outside back) and Henry Speight should score big points if named. Watch for budget priced giant lock Rory Arnold.
My pick: Chiefs
Rebels vs Waratahs
The Rebels have a terrible or good draw depending how you look at it, playing against both 2014 finalists first up, but given the poor form from both the Crusaders and Waratahs in Round 1, maybe it is a good draw for the Melbourne side. The Rebels have lost some players in 2015, but have also gained the likes of Mike Harris and Dominic Shipperley to boost their backline. Lots will depend on Scott Higginbotham. It will be interesting to see what reception former Rebels player Kurtley Beale gets!
The Waratahs have a star studded side with Beale, Israel Folau, Tatafu Polatu-Nau, Bernard Foley and Wallabies captain Michael Hooper. Can the defending champions play so badly two weeks in a row? The Rebels could be facing the wrath of the Waratahs loss to the Force.
Players to watch:
For the Rebels, (not named yet) if Scott Higginbotham and Luke Jones are playing, they get around the park. Mike Harris might be a good option as a goalkicking player who is not an inside back, while Dominic Shipperley is a good try scorer if he gets a chance. Pat Leafa is a bargain priced hooker.
Waratahs: Israel Folau, Kurtley Beale, Tatafu Polatu-Nau, Bernard Foley, Will Skelton and Michael Hooper. The Waratahs generally don’t come cheap, but score some big fantasy points of Will Skelton size!
The Waratahs should have enough class to get up over the Rebels, even though it is on the road. They need to win to get their campaign back on track, although it probably won’t be as lopsided as most of their previous clashes.
My pick: Waratahs
Bulls vs Hurricanes
The Bulls were upset by the Stormers last week, while the Hurricanes beat the Lions, although despite this, it is still difficult to gauge the relative form of these teams. The Hurricanes have a lethal backline and the potential to win, but it took them a while to get past the Lions who were awful. To their advantage, they have their second game in a row very close to their game against the Lions and so they haven’t had to travel.
It is difficult to know if Maá Nonu’s inclusion in the starting lineup is going to reap rewards or not. He is back with his buddies Conrad Smith, Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett and Cory Jane.
The Bulls have Pierre Spies as captain and had some questions asked of their forward pack last week by the Stormers, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.
Can the Hurricanes win twice in South Africa for the first time since 2006? We think it is definitely possible, but the Bulls will be fired up after last week’s loss to the Stormers and we also think that the Lions were awful.
Players to watch: Bulls – (Not named yet) Adriaan Strauss, Victor Matfield, Handre Pollard, Deon Stegmann, Pierre Spies.
Hurricanes: The Hurricanes have some exceptional players so Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett and Dane Coles are worth a shot. If you want value for money, go for Blade Thomson who is listed as a lock in many fantasy games, but is a good Number Eight who scores tries although he didn’t get many points last week.
My pick: Bulls
Highlanders vs Crusaders
The Highlanders start off their campaign at home to the Crusaders in Dunedin. The southern men will be hoping that good pre-season form and the University scarfies celebrating the academic year beginning will get them across the line.
The Crusaders were poor against the Rebels in Round 1 and tend to start the season slowly. They have a good record in Dunedin, but interestingly their good record disappears if they play early in the year.
This could be a potential upset with the Highlanders having a well-balanced side featuring All Blacks Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa, while the Crusaders lack some punch without Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Nemani Nadolo, while they will have Colin Slade in the Number 10 jersey for the injured Dan Carter. They also welcome back Israel Dagg. It is surprising that Andy Ellis hasn’t been rushed back into the squad as Aaron Smith should have an advantage over Mitchell Drummond.
The Crusaders do have the wood over the Highlanders, but were woeful last week. It will be interesting to see if they have improved, because if they don’t they will lose.
Players to watch: Highlanders – Nasi Manu, Ben Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Joe Wheeler are good fantasy players, while Tom Franklin, Waisake Nadolo, Shaun Treeby and Elliot Dixon could be worth a punt as other options.
Crusaders: Colin Slade will gain the most from Dan Carter’s injury, Luke Romano, Richie McCaw, Robbie Fruean and Ben Funnell are good options.
My pick: Highlanders
Reds vs Force
The Reds were the whipping boys of Super Rugby Round 1, but were they that bad or were the Brumbies exceptional? I think it was a bit of both, the Reds weren’t helped by several injuries. Well the cavalry has arrived in James O’Connor and Adam Thomson. For those playing fantasy rugby, these guys have both been large points scorers in the past.
The trouble is that the Force are actually still a useful side without having too many big names in their squad. They beat the Waratahs and have a good recent record against the Reds. For some reason people don’t pick the unfancied Force in tipping competitions, but I am picking them here. The Reds will be disjointed, but it will be closer than the Reds loss to the Brumbies. Sometimes there is a bounce back situation with teams winning a week after coping a hiding, but the Reds simply don’t look to have the quality backline that the other teams do in Super Rugby, although O’Connor will help with that.
Players to watch: Reds: James O’Connor, Adam Thomson, Karmichael Hunt, Samu Kerevi.
Force: Nathan Charles, Angus Cottrell.
My pick: Force
Stormers vs Blues
The Stormers were impressive against the Bulls and their forward pack will be a challenge for the Blues who themselves have a big forward pack. The Blues were uninspiring in their loss at home to the Chiefs, but the Chiefs are a good team.
Neither of these teams have been named at the time of writing this, but based on form from last week, the Stormers should win.
These teams have similar records head to head against each other, with the Blues actually having a slight advantage at Newlands, but the Stormers have started stronger than usual as they are usually late developers during the season. The potential match-up between Duane Vermeulen and Jerome Kaino is intriguing.
If the Blues can gain parity with the Stormers forwards, then they have a good chance to win as they have some exciting young backs, although they are inexperienced.
Players to watch:
Stormers: Yet to be named. Duane Vermeulen, Damian de Allende and Dillyn Leyds.
Blues: Yet to be named Jerome Kaino, Charles Piutau, Ihaia West and Lolagi Visinia.
My pick: Stormers
Sharks vs Lions
The Sharks were disappointing in losing to the Cheetahs in Round 1, showing a soft underbelly under their new coach, while the Lions were awful against the Hurricanes, with their usual go to goal kicker Marnitz Boshoff struggling with his technique. The Sharks and Lions are yet to be named yet, but it will be interesting to see if Boshoff gets named to start. Both of these teams had more promising starts in 2014 and will be looking to repeat that.
Bismarck du Plessis will hopefully start for the Sharks as his withdrawal last weekend disrupted both the Sharks and fantasy rugby managers! He is vital for the Sharks.
The Sharks have to win this game at home against the Lions if they are to be taken seriously in 2015.
Players to watch: Not named yet: Sharks: Bismarck du Plessis, Pat Lambie, Marcell Coetzee.
Lions: Not named yet: Marnitz Boshoff, Malcolm Marx, Warren Whiteley, Derrick Minnie.
My pick: Sharks
Who are you picking to win Super Rugby Round 2 matches?
Join the Super Rugby Tips tipping competition!
http://www.superrugbytips.com/2015/02/super-15-rugby-round-2-preview-and.html
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