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Seven Reasons Australia Will Win On Sunday 2 views 10 Comments
12 October 2011 by The Swede Eaters

Scotty Donaldson looks at seven reasons the Wallabies will win on Sunday.

Here are seven reasons the Wallabies will beat the All Blacks in the Rugby World Cup 2011 semi final.

1) David Pocock who dominated the Springboks at the breakdown, could well do the same to the All Blacks on Sunday night.

2) The All Blacks have injuries to experienced personnel with Dan Carter already out with injury, while Richie McCaw is injured and either will play while injured or will be replaced by someone out of position like Victor Vito. The All Blacks winning record drops without these guys with only 64% victories against Australia while one of them isn't playing and one can only imagine the big blow that losing your captain and star loose forward will make. Mils Muliaina is out injured, while other players like Adam Thomson, Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guildford are only maybe available for selection.

3) The Wallabies are able to win without much possession or territory like they did against the Springboks. They should get more than 30% possession against the All Blacks.

4) The Wallabies won the last time that these two met (Brisbane) and also won the Tri Nations.

5) The Wallabies have most of their key players fit, with the possible exception of Kurtley Beale and of course Drew Mitchell. They have plenty of youth and speed in their team which could show the All Blacks up.

6) The All Blacks have some unproven players in vital positions like third string first five eighth Aaron Cruden who is also really small. Piri Weepu will have to start and play 80 minutes if the All Blacks are to win.

7) Stuart Barnes, Greg Martin and Laurence Dallaglio are picking Australia to win.

With the Wallabies paying $3 to win, it is tempting to back them in this one. Do you agree?

rugbyworldcuptips.com

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Comments (10)

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	10 . pistolpiet 16 Oct 2011 10:50 PM looks like you were wrong.....7 times
	9 . Butchjamesisalegend 13 Oct 2011 09:32 PM Oz are coming off a seriously hollow victory, and there's no way their back line can draw any confidence from their impotent attacking performance. Granted their backs are class, the AB's (esp McCaw) wont give Poccock room to breathe and a as a result starve them of the ball. Cruden is a better alternative than Slade but still they are going to be a shadow of the team they would be with Cater. Can't see too many points being scored in this match so not great for testrugby.com, but will be a spectacle nonetheless.
	8 . bradmanesque 13 Oct 2011 06:03 PM The writer is clutching at straws, the All Blacks havnt lost at home to australia in 10 years and cruden is at least 70% the player carter is, as opposed to Slade who is an amatuer, All Blacks to have it sealed by the 60th minute
	7 . Reggie the Red 13 Oct 2011 05:11 PM The Wallabies wont get the 50-50 decisions needed to win this weekend. Australia will need to score early and stay in front to silence a vocal Eden Park Crowd. Result ABs in a close one decided on penalties.
	6 . The Swede Eaters 13 Oct 2011 03:56 PM Good points Tumeric. I have my contact details down the side of my website, flick me a message if you are interested in writing some articles.
	5 . The Swede Eaters 13 Oct 2011 03:43 PM I am going to do a New Zealand one closer to the match. It is really just to get a reaction.
	4 . turmeric 13 Oct 2011 09:20 AM By the way if I were writing reasons why the OZs might win I'd add the notion (whether it be true of false) that the All Blacks are susceptible to the pressure of big games particularly in World Cups, the uncanny ability of OZ sports teams to win, WILL GENIA, and the potential for refs to overly influence the result of the game. (Im a big fan of Joubert though, so dont think that will happen). Also sorry I was reading through point by point and didnt catch that you mentioned the OZ injuries later. Cheers.
	3 . turmeric 13 Oct 2011 09:05 AM 4) Cant argue much with #4 but two points that should be made there; NZ blew the Tri Nations by resting their team against SA, it showed arrogance from the AB team that wasnt backed up by their on field performance and I think that result really brought them down a notch. I dont think OZ winning the Tri Nations is a very good reflection of the comparative rankings of the 3 sides. Secondly OZ played brilliantly in Brisbane so they deserve respect for that, NZ on the flip side played terribly, had horrific luck with injury (Read and Thompson with Thompsons injury dierctly leading to Samo's try) yet they still came out in the second half and within 20 minutes had reined in a 17 point half time deficit to be leading. My point is even when the ABs were woeful for most of the game and had bad luck with injuries while and OZ played out of their skin and at home OZ only won by 5 and a piece of Genia brilliance. Good win by OZ but I wonder if that is more of a one off that a guide for form. 5) Talked about this before but dont underestimate the potential loss of Beale, and also remember that Kepu and McCabe have been struggling with injury too. OZ certainly have youth but is that really a trait of RWC winning teams? Not been the case in the first 6 cups thats for sure. 6) Yup I agree that the biggest concern of most AB fans is at 10, but Cruden is a bloody good player, I really think he will come out on Sunday and surprise many! What got me over Carters injury though is looking around the rest of the faces in the AB camp at training and seeing start after star after star. The ABs are stacked with talent, Man for Man they dominate most positions and right now I would much prefer Cruden over Quade! 7) You ran out of points here right?
	2 . turmeric 13 Oct 2011 08:52 AM Swede, do you really believe any of this or are you just trying to get a reaction?? 1) Pocock got away with Murder last week, everyone knows that and full credit to him for playing to the ref BUT, there is no way the refs will let him do that again, and no way the ABs will let him either. He is a great player no doubt but his influence on this game IMO will be nothing like last week. 2) I dont think youve got your ear to the groubd on this point. McCaw WILL play, Id be extremely surprised if any of Dagg, Kahui dont play, Guilford was never going to be a factor, Thompson might be the only real injury concern but from what Ive heard Vito may well be preferred anyway, and while Mills' injury was sad we both know he wasnt going to tka e any part in the RWC after he got his 100th. Ppoint being injuries arent a big factor for the ABs except at 10 and I am very confident in Cruden's abilities to cover there (more so that I was in Slade) Youve also neglected to mention any of OZ's injury concerns, Mitchel is gone and Beale is 50 - 50. I f Beale goes that is a HUGE loss for OZ as it means their defensive patters have to change bc Beale has been defending at 10 to allow Quade to hide in the backfield. As for the 64% figure, update that figure for home games and see what it looks like, and how many other first string players were out of the ABs at the same time? 27 years since they won at Eden park! 3) The Wallabies ground out a win against SA and did very well to do so but boy should SA have won that one. They botched numerous scoring opportunities, controlled the match for huge periods of time and copped a drubbing from Bryce Lawrence. If I were OZ I wouldn't be drawing too much confidence from that game at all and they will need to improve out of sight to have any chance against the ABs.
	1 . Havok_nz 13 Oct 2011 02:30 AM All blacks got it in the bag. All valid points, but its the AB's at home, we got this.

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